Category: Blog

How to Turn a Summer Job into a Tax-Free Retirement Nest Egg and More

4 min read

Summer Job into a Tax-Free RetirementTis the season for summer jobs for high school and college kids. These seasonal jobs are more than just an opportunity for teens and college students to earn some money and gain experience. They also provide the opportunity for seeding a significant retirement nest egg and even a down payment on a home through a Roth IRA.

Seems too good to be true? Well, it’s not – but as always, the devil’s in the details, and it is not exactly a free lunch. So, let’s walk through exactly how this all works.

Step 1 – Earned Income

First, teen or college students must get a job that pays – and the more the better. This is because the gateway to opening and contributing to a Roth IRA is earned income. The magic number for earned income to max out a Roth IRA in 2021 is $6,000, as this is the contribution limit. This is because contributions are limited to the lesser of the $6,000 limit or 100 percent of earned income.

Step 2 – Make the Roth IRA Contributions

The next step is to make the contributions to the working child’s Roth IRA. Let’s be honest here. It is a rare case where a kid is going to take all or nearly all their summer job earnings and stash them away in a Roth IRA for 50+ years down the road. There is a way around this, however.

A parent or grandparent can contribute to the Roth IRA in the child’s[h1]  name, with two nuances. First, this contribution is still governed by the earned income limits discussed above. Second, these amounts count toward the $15,000 per year gift tax exclusion ($30,000 if married) so it will eat into that. Lastly, do not forget the deadline to make 2021 Roth IRA contributions of any type is April 18, 2022.

How Much is This Worth?

While $6,000 or so may not seem like a lot, it can make a significant difference over time due to the power of compounding returns from such a young age – coupled with the tax advantages of a Roth IRA.

To illustrate the power of this tax and investment move, let us take a scenario where a high school kid makes the $6,000 per year over three summers from age 16-18 before heading off to college, and the Roth IRA contribution is maxed out.

With contributions at just $18,000 and NEVER putting in another dime again, this will turn into the following amounts under different assumed investment returns by the time they are 66 (40 years of compounding).

  • 6 percent return = $313,000
  • 8 percent return = $783,000
  • 10 percent return = $1.93 million

Now, before you get too excited, you must understand that 40 years from now $300,000 will not be what it used to be if inflation continues at historical rates – but the point remains. This simple move made over just a few years can create significant tax-free wealth.

Side Benefit

Due to the characteristic of a Roth IRA, the other beneficial options relate to withdrawal. First, the contributions can be accessed any time before age 59 ½ without penalties or taxes. Second, even after all the initial contributions are removed, a first-time homebuyer can take up to $10,000 without the 10 percent early withdrawal penalty to help fund the purchase, although they will owe income tax on the withdrawal if it has been less than five years since the initial contribution.

Be VERY careful here though, because any withdrawals will dramatically lower the investment returns noted above.

Conclusion

Funding a Roth IRA for a high school or college child or grandchild can give them a tremendous head start in life. A few years of relatively small contributions early on can create substantial wealth over time due to compounding of returns and the tax advantages of the accounts.

How Businesses Can Harness Demand Forecasting

4 min read

How Businesses Can Harness Demand ForecastingAccording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumer spending has seen some interesting trends over the first half of 2021. May was flat, April was at 0.9 percent, March was 5.0 percent, and February was at 1.0 percent. With varied consumer spending statistics as the nation comes out of the pandemic, it’s important for businesses to get demand forecasting as accurate as possible.

According to The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, demand forecasting is “a method for predicting future demand for a product.” It’s a calculated method to plan for inventory and helps prepare the supply chain for the future.

Demand forecasting helps businesses forecast their future sales, which is based primarily on historical data. However, relying exclusively on historical data is not generally recommended.

Historical data provides an incomplete picture because it does not factor in economic trends, seasonal ordering, or consumer behaviors. Multiple analyses are also recommended because young companies don’t have enough of their own data to perform such analyses.

It’s recommended to run through more than one method to forecast sales. It’s important to ensure that data is as accurate as possible and to consider factors beyond inventory. Such factors include how external players – shippers, material suppliers, etc. – will work with the company’s internal functioning.

It’s important to be mindful of the time frame of the different analyses. Short-term refers to the next quarter to four quarters (3 to 12 months) and helps businesses adapt to changes in consumer demand and market variations. Real-time sales data is used to manage just enough inventory. Long-term refers to at least 12 to 24 months, but sometimes 36-48 months, and is used for things related to the long-term business vision. Examples include creating a more reliable supply chain, capital expenditures, advertising campaigns, etc.

Similarly, demand forecasts run by a business can be done regarding intrinsic or extrinsic factors. External forecasts evaluate how the broader economy and systemic changes in commerce shifts future demand. Recommended indicators include exploring how many retail consumers spend, what they are interested in, and whether the economy is expanding or contracting. Internal demand forecasts look at the organization’s employee makeup and where and how the business can divert resources to help deal with additional capacity, if necessary.

Passive demand forecasting relies exclusively on historical data and is usually geared toward established companies with generally reliable sales histories.

Active demand forecasting is geared more toward startup businesses looking to scale and diversify their portfolio. It can be variable because it factors in changing trends of the fluid economy and how companies, especially startups, plan to accelerate growth. However, active demand forecasting also may be useful in order for businesses to work around fluid inventory and logistic network overview. Startup businesses are better geared for real-time demand planning, mainly due to a lack of historical data. 

With the quantitative approach focusing on crunching data, oftentimes with complex “big data” processes, the qualitative method takes a more balanced approach with some data, but also cognitive-based analyses, including some of the following tactics:

  1.  The salesforce approach gleans data from the sales staff to predict demand. Those doing sales are in direct contact with the company’s customer base; therefore, they can get info on customer needs and behavior and even report back on what the competition is doing.
  2. Market research looks at present market trends and sees where businesses can meet newly created consumer demand. Startups benefit because they have little or no historical data.
  3. The Delphi Method works by hiring an outside group of experts and asking them a series of relevant questions. From there, each expert creates a demand forecast based on their market knowledge. Then, the individual forecasts are shared among the experts anonymously. From there, experts are asked again to come up with a forecast; this is repeated until there is far greater consensus among all the experts.

While demand forecasting is individual to each company and each industry, the more businesses that understand the approach to demand forecasting, the more able they’ll be to react to any type of consumer trend.

Sources

https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main

https://supplychainmanagement.utk.edu/blog/guide-to-forecasting-demand/

HSA: Save it for Retirement

4 min read

HSA: Save it for Retirement, Health Saving AccountAccording to Fidelity Investments, the average 65-year-old couple retiring today will need about $300,000 for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses during retirement. And that doesn’t even include long-term care. One way to help pay for this enormous cost is to open a health savings account (HSA), which is a savings and investment vehicle designed to help people pay for medical-related expenses on a tax-free basis.

To open one of these accounts, you must be enrolled in an HSA-eligible, high-deductible health insurance plan (HDHP). These are offered by many employers and also are available on the individual insurance market. One of the little-known advantages of the HSA is that if you delay withdrawing from it until retirement, you’ll have money ready to tap for those out-of-pocket expenses on as-needed basis.

An HDHP works exactly as it is named; comprehensive coverage does not kick in until the plan member reaches an annual deductible that is typically higher than other healthcare plans. The trade-off for the higher deductible is that monthly premiums are lower. Therefore, this type of plan is generally suited for healthy individuals or families that do not have a lot of ongoing medical expenses.

In 2021, the annual HSA contribution limit is $3,600 for individuals and $7,200 for family coverage.  In 2022, these limits increase to $3,650 for individuals and $7,300 for families. Account owners age 55 and older may add another $1,000 “catch-up” contribution. With a work-sponsored HDHP, both the employee and the employer may contribute to the savings account, but their combined contributions may not exceed the annual limit. As long as you are enrolled in an HDHP, you may contribute to the HSA. Even when you no longer contribute, the account belongs to you and maybe invested for growth and tapped as needed.

Investment Advantage

An HSA is maintained at a financial institution, such as a bank. Once saved assets have reached a certain threshold, that custodian will allow the owner to invest a portion of the balance. While the HSA rules technically allow you to invest starting with your first dollar, many custodians have their own minimums required in the HSA (usually $1,000 to $2,500) to be available for medical expenses. Beyond that the balance, the savings can be invested for growth. Also, the owner can transfer money to and from the bank and the investment account as needed.

The invested portion of an HSA is transferred to a brokerage account. There, the owner has a variety of options to invest in, including mutual funds and individual securities. According to Morningstar, more than 80 percent of HSA investment funds have earned gold, silver, or bronze analyst ratings, and the lower end of investment fees range from 0.02 percent to 0.68 percent a year. Note that some investment management fees run higher, so it’s important to compare fees just as you would with any other type of investment.

Triple Tax Advantage

The health savings account features more tax benefits than any other type of investment, including a 401(k), a traditional IRA, or a Roth IRA. That’s because all contributions are tax-free (either through payroll deductions at work, which also avoid FICA taxes or as a tax deduction when health insurance is purchased independently). Moreover, HSA investments grow tax-free. If eventual withdrawals are used to pay for qualified medical expenses, they are not taxed either. So essentially, savings, investments, and gains from an HSA account that are used to pay for healthcare expenses are never subject to taxes. If you do use this money for nonqualified expenses, you’ll have to pay income taxes and, if taken before age 65, a penalty fee as well.

However, consider when most people encounter their highest medical bills: during retirement. If you pay for all out-of-pocket expenses with current income throughout your career, your HSA has the opportunity to grow into a substantial nest egg by (and during) retirement. The most effective use of these funds is to pay for health-related expenses, such as Medicare premiums, dental, and vision care, long-term care insurance premiums, and nursing home costs.

An additional advantage is that health savings accounts are not subject to required minimum distributions. However, be aware that when an HSA is left to a non-spouse heir, it converts to a taxable account – so it’s best to use up these assets while you’re still alive.

5 Tips for Job Seekers Over 50

4 min read

Job Seekers Over 50You’ve got loads of experience in your field. You know things that only time can teach you. However, all of your experience and knowledge can sometimes work against you. And even though age discrimination is illegal, it doesn’t mean it isn’t prevalent. You can’t turn back the clock, but you can reshape how you present yourself. Here are a few good ways to get started.

Learn New Skills

If you see a job posting in your industry that requires knowledge of the software you don’t know, hop on YouTube or enroll in an online class. Certifications help, too, and are available in some of the most in-demand programs, such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Systems Applications and Products (SAP), Hootsuite (used for social media), and Salesforce. This way, you’re demonstrating to employers that you have the necessary qualifications for the job – you’re a viable candidate – and you haven’t fallen behind over the years.

Rethink Your Resume

First of all, limit your experience to the past 15 years, unless there’s a job that reflects a title or skill that’s relevant to the position. You don’t want to appear, upon first glance, overqualified. Second, make sure your CV includes the right keywords. The days of HR managers poring over resumes is mostly gone; they often use applicant tracking systems (ATS) to weed out the candidates that are filling up their inbox at warp speed. Finally, if you’re using AOL or Hotmail, get a new account; this is a red flag that screams too old. Sign up for Gmail instead.

Widen Your Net

Think outside your industry’s box. For instance, you might be attracted to a big-name corporation or a hot startup, but it might not be the right environment for you, especially if there’s a chance you’d report to a much younger manager. You might find a better fit by going outside your comfort zone. Colleges and universities might be good options; you can leverage your experience by teaching. Smaller companies or startups that aren’t as well known might also be good places to look; you could take on multiple roles. Being open to contract or freelance jobs is another good idea. Getting your foot in the door is half the battle.

Use Personal Connections

While job sites like Zip Recruiter and LinkedIn, leads on social media and head hunters are places you might have found opportunities before, reach out to friends and former coworkers. It creates immediate familiarity and, when faced with a sea of resumes, helps move your name closer to the top. When you do get introduced to someone who has an opening, ask about their industry, role in the company, as well as what tools they’ve used, podcasts they listen to, or online classes they’ve taken to keep current. This not only shows your business savvy but also could help keep you top-of-mind if they hear of anything.

Own Your Experience

Your age doesn’t have to be the elephant in the room. Demonstrate why the invaluable skills you’ve accumulated over the years differentiate you from others. Craft an elevator pitch and jump right in. Talk about how, for instance, your breadth and depth of knowledge can help junior executives learn and grow. Busy employers generally want to know how quickly you meet the job requirements and if you can make their life easier, or help them shine.

Remember, you have so much to bring to the table. That’s why serving up your accolades in the right way can make all the difference in the world.

Sources

https://www.themuse.com/advice/jobhunting-after-50-the-new-rules

Technology Driven Accounting: How to Prepare Staff for a New Age in Accounting

4 min read

How to Prepare Staff for a New Age in AccountingTechnology has no doubt changed the traditional way of doing things. Businesses and professionals are left with no choice but to adopt new technology to remain relevant in a changing environment.

However, the successful adoption of this new age in accounting can happen only if you prepare your staff in advance.

Why it’s Necessary to Prepare for the New Age Accounting

Technology offers many benefits; however, the constant rapid changes in technology create a major challenge to organizations and even to the professionals/employees. Some decide to stick with systems with which they are already proficient. Unfortunately, such a decision is not an option if you want to remain relevant in a changing accounting landscape.

Technological changes that have affected the accounting field can be attributed to technologies such as 5G, data analytics, robotic process automation (RPA), computer-assisted auditing technologies (CAATS), blockchain, and cloud computing, among others.

These technologies are literally creating new roles in the accounting field. For instance, automation will take away some accounting jobs, such as data entry, payroll, tax handling and bank reconciliations – thanks to Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and more advanced systems like Robotic Process Automation (RPA).

The effect of technology in the accounting field has made such an impact that the AICPA and NASBA are supporting a CPA evolution. This is aimed at incorporating changing skills and competencies in the accounting field. As a result, this will include a new curriculum and new CPA exams expected to be launched in 2024.

Despite the disruption in the accounting field by technology, it has introduced many new opportunities. Consider this: while automation takes care of repetitive tasks, the accountant can devote more time to planning, organizing, and advising. This enables the accountant to add more value to an organization as they focus on major tasks.

However, this advantage will benefit only those who are well prepared in advance and ready for the new form that accounting is taking.

How to Prepare Your Staff for a New Age in Accounting

Change is not always welcome, but preparing your staff in advance will help ensure a smooth transition. Here is how to prepare your staff:

  • Communicate
    Let your employees know the intended changes in roles as well as new technologies that you plan to implement. Employees also can play a role in selecting technologies best suited to your business operations.
  • Mindset Shift
    Help employees accept the technological changes. They need to shift their mindset and accept the changing digital landscape. This will help with expediency and the ability to take advantage of its benefits.
  • Upskilling and Reskilling
    Give employees a chance to enhance their abilities. They also should learn new things to ensure they have relevant skills to continue working in advanced areas of accounting that require innovation, critical thinking, decision making, etc. Where necessary, they could learn basic programming and even basic automation for more advanced roles like data analysis. Gaining new skills will help your business transition from old systems to new ones, without necessarily hiring new staff.
  • Soft Skills
    Accountants now more than ever need to learn non-technical skills so that they can easily interact with people. If they are expected to take up advisory roles, they should be good at problem-solving, communication, relationship skills, business acumen, etc.
  • Emerging Business Models
    Let your staff be aware of new business models, such as microservices, marketplace platforms, and do-it-yourself models. This especially affects accounting firms whose employees need to be creative on how to leverage these models.
  • Positive Culture
    Develop a culture that enables staff to compete at a new level to keep their morale up so they are not worried about losing their jobs.
  • Stay Updated
    Keep everyone up-to-date with trends even when you don’t intend to implement every new technology that comes up. It helps to stay in the loop of what’s happening in the accounting field.

Keeping up with evolving accounting trends and changes will save you from losing clients. Preparing your staff for the new age of accounting will help your business provide value beyond traditional accounting to your clients. This is because you will be serving as business consultants and strategic partners as opposed to simply accounting experts.

Blocking Voter Expansion, Proposing Greater Scrutiny of Inspectors General, and Paving the Way for Climate Change Measures

hr 12, s65, s1251, hr3684, hr2662

3 min read

hr 12, s65, s1251, hr3684, hr2662For the People Act of 2021 (HR 12) – This bill is designed to improve voter access to the ballot box by expanding automatic and same-day voter registration, vote-by-mail and early voting. The legislation also contains provisions that limit removing voters from voter rolls, strengthens ethics rules for public servants, reduces the influence of big money in politics and addresses other anti-corruption measures. The bill was introduced by Sen. John Sarbanes (D-MD) on Jan. 4 and passed in the House on March 3. In early July, the bill was blocked by Republicans in the Senate and its status is pending further action that may be taken by Senate Democrats.

Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (S 65) – This bipartisan bill is designed to prevent goods from entering the U.S. market that are made via forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China. It would also enhance existing asset- and visa-blocking sanctions of foreign individuals and entities responsible for human rights abuses connected to forced labor in Xinjiang. The bill was introduced by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) on Jan. 27. It was passed by the Senate on July 14 and is currently in the House.

Growing Climate Solutions Act of 2021 (S 1251) – This bill was introduced by Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) on April 2. The purpose of this legislation is to reduce barriers to entry for farmers, ranchers and private forest landowners in certain voluntary credit markets. In order to participate in the program, providers must offer technical assistance to help landowners utilize sustainable land use management practices that prevent, reduce or mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, or sequester carbon; or be a third-party charged with verifying the process for voluntary environmental credit markets. The bill passed in the Senate on June 24 and is currently under consideration in the House.

INVEST in America Act (HR 3684) – This bill authorizes federal funds for highways, highway safety and transit programs. It includes strategies to reduce climate change impacts of the surface transportation system; revises Buy America procurement requirements for highways, mass transit and rail; establishes a rebuild rural bridges program to improve the safety and state of good repair of bridges in rural communities; and other purposes. The legislation was introduced by Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) on April 19 and passed in the House on June 29. It is currently under consideration in the Senate.

IG Independence and Empowerment Act (HR 2662) – Introduced by Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) on April 19, the bill amends the Inspector General Act of 1978. Some of the provisions include: allowing an Inspector General to be removed only for cause; requiring that Congress be notified before an IG is placed on nonduty status; requiring the president to explain any failure to nominate an IG; adding provisions regarding acting IGs when an IG position is vacant; notifying Congress when an allegation of wrongdoing made by a member of Congress is closed without referral for investigation. The legislation passed in the House on June 29 and is in the Senate for consideration.

5 Tips for Going Back to the Office

4 min read

5 Tips for Going Back to the OfficeSlowly, our world is changing. A percentage of the population has been vaccinated and many employees are headed back to the office. However, this may cause a bit of anxiety – and understandably so. Here are few ways to help take the edge off of returning to the workplace.

Wake up Earlier

For some of you, working from home might have caused you to shift your office hours. Maybe you’re starting later and staying up later. Whatever your routine, it’s safe to say that generally, office hours are 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. A few days, perhaps a week, before you expect to go back, set your alarm earlier. Each day, baby step it back a few minutes to the time you roused yourself before the shutdown began. Though things might never be the same, at least your re-entry into the work world might feel somewhat familiar.

Prepare the Night Before Your First Day

Along with starting your day earlier, think through everything you need to take with you. Do you drink coffee? Make sure you have a thermos with a hot cup of joe ready to go. Do you eat lunch at work? Make your lunch the night before; or if you prefer microwavable meals, be sure you’ve got all your favs ready to pop into your work bag. Ensuring that you will have sustenance at whatever time you lunch will save you a lot of worry.

Review Your Workplace Protocols

Here we’re talking about rules to keep you safe. Do you need a mask if you’ve been vaccinated? What if you haven’t been vaccinated? Do you need to always wear a mask? Will there be hand sanitizer onsite or do you need to bring your own? Email HR or leadership to be fully aware of the policy so you can keep up-to-date with any changes. Staying informed will help calm your nerves.

Manage Your Stress

Make sure you’re being mindful of how you’re feeling emotionally before, during, and after you return to work. If you’re dealing with anxiety when you’re back at work, practice self-care. Take a walk outside during lunch to get some fresh air. If you like to exercise and your gym is open, plan a quick workout. If for some reason you can’t leave the office, try meditation apps like Calm, Headspace or Simple Habit. (These are also great when you get home and before you go to bed – anytime, actually.) You might also call a friend or family member and share how you’re feeling. Letting off some steam and expressing yourself helps alleviate some of the pressure that might be building up.

Communicate with Your Team

Making the transition back to the office can be challenging, if not downright tough. To diffuse any misunderstandings, practice transparency with everyone, no matter what their position. If you’re a manager, lay out your expectations so that everyone is on the same page. If you’re an individual contributor, make sure your manager and peers know what you’re working on, your hours, and any out-of-the-office days you have coming up. Many companies are asking employees, initially, to split their time between the office and home, which means that for some a full transition back to the office is yet to come. Regardless, overcommunicating will ensure you don’t miss out on anything important.

We may never return to the days before the pandemic. However, we’re making strides to get back to a place of normalcy and are here to guide you every step of the way.

Sources

https://blog.execu-search.com/returning-to-work-5-tips/

Audits in Accounting: Improving Audit Quality with Data Analytics

4 min read

Audits in Accounting: Improving Audit Quality with Data AnalyticsAuditing is crucial to ensure the accuracy and fairness of financial information. However, one of the biggest threats to audit reputation today is data quality. This is because of the large volumes of data that businesses produce today. To deal with so much data, auditors are now turning to data analytics.

Data Analytics and Audits

Technology has played a major role in business growth as it aids in reducing operational costs and improving customer service. As such, many businesses have adopted enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. These systems result in huge volumes of data, making it nearly impossible to analyze using the traditional audit process.

Auditors are left with no choice but to also use IT-based solutions; and this led to the development of audit software to support the auditors in data extraction and analysis.

To further enhance the workings of audit software, it’s now being integrated with data analytics. Given that data analytics works with structured data, the systems incorporate machine learning (deep learning) to extract useful data from a host of unstructured data.

Although these developments in the audit profession have not changed the primary role of auditors, they have changed how an audit is done by helping produce high quality audit evidence.

How Data Analytics Improves Audit Quality

Traditional audits involve combing through piles of data, which is time consuming. As a result, auditors prefer workarounds like data sampling, which does not give a true outcome.

With data analytics, an auditor does not have to restrict data to financial reporting systems only. Instead, they can use data from multiple complete data sets, such as sales statistical data and employee and customer master data. This enables an auditor to go beyond traditional audits that target limited data and include different audit relevant data.

Using data analytics tools, auditors look for predefined patterns that help reveal ambiguous relationships between variables that a manual system might not identify. This helps facilitate a more comprehensive decision that includes all data sets.

By integrating data analytics, auditors have access to a powerful tool that helps them better understand a business. As a result, they can easily identify key audit risks, provide deeper insights into a business’ systems and controls, detect fraud, and provide value in a less costly manner.

Apart from simplifying and speeding up the audit process, data analytics also enables auditors to focus on key risks.

The capabilities of data analytics continue to evolve to the point of automating the auditing process through advanced data analytics (ADA). This enables the automation of routine audit processes, allowing the auditors more time for matters that require professional judgment.

Challenges of Audit Data Analytics

Audit data analytics isn’t without a few challenges, one of which is data exchange between a business and an auditor, whether internal or external. This is in relation to different systems used in data collection. To handle this challenge, the AICPA introduced data standards to be used for data requests and to ensure production of standard reports from the ERP systems.

Another challenge is the integrity of data fed into the analytics systems, as this determines the quality of the end results. Systems used should be designed around collecting meaningful data. Auditors must also ensure that the conclusions fed into the systems are accurate and correct.  

Although data analytics reduces the sampling risk, it introduces the challenge of getting numerous exceptions, mostly referred to as outliers, that produce results outside audit expectations. This calls for auditors to investigate the exceptions/outliers to determine if they are errors or misstatements.

Conclusion

Integrating data analytics into the audit process greatly improves audit quality and credibility. With rapid advancements in technology, the capabilities of data analytics will continue to evolve, making auditing work even more efficient while maintaining high quality.

Although the adoption of data analytics is dependent on the size of a business, availability of skilled staff is also crucial. To remain relevant in a fast-changing environment, auditors need to advance their skills to effectively use the data analytics tools.

Recognizing the Abolishment of Slavery and Compensating Law Enforcement, Overseas Federal Employees and Disaster Relief Victims

Recognizing the Abolishment of Slavery and Compensating Law Enforcement, Overseas Federal Employees and Disaster Relief Victims

3 min read

Recognizing the Abolishment of Slavery and Compensating Law Enforcement, Overseas Federal Employees and Disaster Relief VictimsJuneteenth National Independence Day Act (S 475) – This bill authorizes Juneteenth National Independence Day on June 19 as a legal public holiday. The bill was introduced by Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) on Feb. 25. It was passed by both the House and the Senate on June 16 and signed into law by the president on June 17.

Protecting America’s First Responders Act (S 937) – This bill was introduced by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) on April 29. The legislation ensures that certain law enforcement and first responders who have become permanently and totally disabled as a result of personal injuries sustained in the line of duty have prompt access to specific payments and benefits. The bill passed in the Senate on June 10 and is currently under consideration in the House.

HAVANA Act of 2021 (S 1828) – This bill provides financial support and resources for American officials suffering from the so-called Havana Syndrome – a mysterious set of symptoms that first affected federal employees stationed in Cuba in 2016. The bill authorizes disability benefits to American personnel who have experienced qualifying anomalous health incidents while serving in other countries throughout the world. The legislation was introduced by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) on May 25 and passed in the Senate on June 8. It is currently under consideration in the House.

Preventing Disaster Revictimization Act (HR 539) – Introduced by Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) on Jan. 28, this bill would prevent the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) from taking back disaster assistance funds that it mistakenly awarded to victims who applied for assistance in good faith. Under current law, FEMA can go back weeks, months or even years to seek repayment of funds in cases where the agency subsequently determined it mistakenly granted assistance, but no fraud was committed. This bill would require FEMA to waive that disaster relief debt. The legislation passed in the House on June 15 and is in the Senate for consideration.

United States Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 (S 1260) – This bill establishes a Directorate for Technology and Innovation in the National Science Foundation (NSF) for the purpose of strengthening U.S. leadership in critical technologies. The legislation authorizes investments in research, development and manufacturing in key technology focus areas, such as artificial intelligence, high performance computing and innovation to support national security strategy. The Office of Science and Technology Policy is to develop an annual strategy for the federal government to improve national competitiveness in science and research, and help grow critical industries to generate jobs for the future. The bill was introduced by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on April 20 and passed in the Senate on June 8. It is currently under consideration in the House.

How Will Uncertain Inflation Outlook Impact Stock Market?

5 min read

How Will Uncertain Inflation Outlook Impact Stock Market?The June 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Q&A session with Chairman Jay Powell and recent comments from The Fed have signaled two potential inflation rate hikes in 2023. Two days later, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, signaled there could be a rate hike as soon as 2022. With these mixed signals and upcoming FOMC meetings, how might inflation and the markets play out in 2021?

Inflation and the Dollar

One explanation for inflation is that there are too many dollars chasing too few goods – or more simply put, things will cost more over time. Say you can purchase a pair of shoes for $100. Then, inflation is 3 percent over the course of a year, making them cost $103 after one year.

This example illustrates when the cost of things – including school, housing, clothes, food, energy, etc. – increases according to the Consumer Price Index or CPI, as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines it.

Some Factors Impacting Inflation

One of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandates is price stability. There are three ways The Fed can steer inflation.

The first is by adjusting the Federal Funds Rate, which determines how much banks pay for overnight borrowing from a “depositary institution,” such as the Federal Reserve Bank. By raising this rate, it lowers spending and helps reduce the likelihood of inflation by tamping down costs, along with pushing up interest rates for lenders.

Another tool is the Fed increasing its Reserve Requirement. By increasing this metric, it slows down spending, and therefore inflation by how much money institutions can lend out.

The third is through open-market operations (OMO), whereby the Fed can either buy U.S. Treasury Bonds to increase the supply of money or sell U.S. Treasury Bonds to decrease the money supply.

The Fed uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, along with the Depart of Labor’s Consumer Price and Producer Price indexes, to gauge inflation.

Understanding Cost-Push Inflation

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, there are a few ways to quantify inflation. Cost-push inflation happens when inputs necessary for manufacturing cost more. This can include input resources that cost more or worker pay that rises quickly. During the energy price spike during the 1970s, the increased cost of fossil fuel increased production and commercial hauling costs.

Wage-Push Inflation

According to the Monthly Labor Review, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Bulletin and the American Economic Association, wage-push inflation is the “thesis” that argues employee pay has risen faster than actual good or service output and is squeezing profitability and price attractiveness to consumers.

One reason this occurs is due to a minimum wage mandate. Another reason is to attract better workers or increase their applicant pool. It’s important to know that doing so will increase the money supply in the economy, which will help them purchase more and create a higher demand for goods. This will further increase the price of goods, whereby businesses will charge more for goods to pay higher wages, which will increase the price of goods throughout the economy. It’s all about balancing the wage increases versus the cost of goods.

Demand-Pull Inflation

Demand-pull inflation happens when there’s the classic too much demand but too little supply scenario. It’s often accompanied by an increase in money supply by a loose central bank monetary policy, oftentimes leading to higher prices.

Looking to Commodities

Taking energy, specifically West Texas Intermediate Spot price, due to increasing costs of energy, this sector is projected to do well in an inflationary scenario. Looking at data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the price per barrel increased from nearly $45 on Jan. 1 to more than $59 on April 9, to more than $71.55 on June 18 and climbing. Be it stocks, options or futures, investors who took positions earlier in 2021 or 2020 likely benefitted from inflation.

Performance May Vary by Asset

However, it’s important to select the right assets to decrease the likelihood of losses and increase the chances of gains. For example, fixed income, in conjunction with higher interest rates, is likely to decline due to not staying competitive with inflation rates. Using the “discounted cash-flow method” to evaluate a stock, especially in periods of higher interest rates, growth stocks fare worse compared to their value counterparts. When investing in dividend paying stocks, these may provide a hedge against inflation because they oftentimes can pass on higher costs for their products, keeping their earnings in line with growth expectations, along with receiving dividends themselves.

While the future of the market can’t be predicted, paying attention to how the economy reopens and the Fed manages inflation can help determine what investments are the best going forward.