Author: Service2Client

Will the Natural Gas Squeeze Derail the Recovery?

3 min read

Natural Gas PriceEnergy is expected to increase in price as 2021 closes and 2022 begins, according to the Oct. 13, 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Between October 2021 and March 2022, the U.S. benchmark, Henry Hub, is expected to average $5.67 million British thermal units (MMBtu). For 2022, the average price is expected to be $4.01/MMBtu. This is attributed to increased consumer need, a decline in domestic natural gas production, and sub-par inventories stockpiled as the weather becomes increasingly cold.

According to the EIA, the price of natural gas is influenced by a multitude of factors. These include supply and demand, production, storage levels, imports and exports, seasonality, the state of the economy and the availability of other fossil fuels.

For example, looking at hurricanes and seasonality in 2001, 25 percent of “dry natural gas” was produced in the Gulf of Mexico; however, only 2 percent was produced there in 2020. Cold weather also can impact prices due to slowing production – and if it’s coupled with increased demand, it can similarly increase natural gas prices.

Power generation creates additional need for air conditioning and power. With natural gas used for power generation, and if there’s increased demand coupled with limited inventories, trading on the cash market could see significantly higher prices than normal.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) saw how higher prices of natural gas impacted individuals and businesses in its Federal District. The agricultural sector used it for greenhouse temperature control, using mechanical equipment to prepare crops for the market. It led to some farmers halting their operations due to unprofitability.

Consumers in the nation’s West use natural gas as their chief source for warming homes. During 1999 and 2000, the FRBSF explained that it wasn’t uncommon for the price to increase by 60 percent or even double.

Considerations for the Stock Market

With the price of natural gas projected to increase as the weather gets colder, it’ll impact businesses and consumers. Businesses will be forced to determine how much of their additional costs to absorb, impacting profit margins, and how much to pass on to consumers. For consumers, there are two considerations – they will be impacted by increases in prices of goods and services, and the likelihood of decreased consumer spending and confidence, both impacting the economy.

It’s important to understand how consumer confidence impacts spending and therefore is a good indicator of how publicly traded companies will perform on their quarterly earnings. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), consumer confidence gives a good idea of how they’ll spend and save determined by a survey of their budget and their outlook on the overall economy. The higher the consumer’s confidence, the more likely they are to spend and save less.

With production low and supply availability uncertain globally, depending on how hard consumers are hit in the wallet, price fluctuations of natural gas will impact consumers accordingly – and in-turn, that of company earnings.

How to Develop Company Travel Policies Post-COVID

5 min read

Company Travel Policies Post-COVIDAccording to a recent U.S. Travel Association forecast, only about one-third of companies are requiring their employees to travel. With business travel still at a low, how can companies develop a travel policy that reduces the risk of COVID-19?

Occupational Safety and Health Administration

When it comes to business travelers, whether employees are traveling domestically or internationally, OSHA recommends employers consult the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for guidance.

Travel Guidance

The CDC advises against traveling internationally if someone is not vaccinated, is exposed to, sick with, tests positive and/or is waiting results from COVID-19 exposure. Even for travelers who are fully vaccinated, the CDC reminds us that becoming infected and/or spreading the virus is still possible.

Travelers should similarly follow all guidelines at their point of departure, on the airline, and at their destination (e.g., wear face masks, get tested to show proof of being COVID-19 negative, maintain social distancing) to be compliant with requirements during each point of the journey.

For those returning to the United States, fully vaccinated travelers must have a negative COVID-19 test taken within 72 hours of travel. Fully vaccinated individuals are suggested to test three to five days post travel, keep an eye out for symptoms and test and isolate if there are symptoms. Travelers who are not fully vaccinated must have a negative COVID-19 test within 24 hours of travel. Travelers who are not fully vaccinated are advised to test three to five days after, along with self-quarantining for seven days, post return. Even if the COVID-19 test is negative, self-quarantining for seven days after travel is advised. If the COVID-19 test is positive, travelers should isolate. If you don’t get tested, stay at home and self-quarantine for 10 days post travel. If symptomatic, test and isolate.

When it comes to domestic travel, differences exist between fully vaccinated and partially/non-vaccinated travelers. Along with masking and government mandates for fully vaccinated travelers, upon return they need to keep an eye out for symptoms and isolate if any develop. However, there are no recommendations for testing or self-quarantining for fully vaccinated or those who have recovered from an infection within the past three months.

For unvaccinated travelers, along with following masking, social distancing, hand hygiene practices, and government mandates, testing 24 to 72 hours before departure is recommended. Upon return, travelers are advised to get tested three to five days later and isolate for one week. If non-vaccinated travelers don’t test, a 10-day quarantine is recommended. If a test is done and it’s negative, a one-week isolation period is recommended.

Assessing Financial/Legal Risk

Employers must determine if the work that requires travel is truly essential, and if it is in all jurisdictions, it should be documented. There are a few types of potential financial and/or legal liabilities if employees travel to perform their work duties. If an employee becomes infected, a workers’ compensation claim could be opened. If an employee does not receive an accommodation, either not having to travel or unable to work safely in the office with a worker who may have been exposed to COVID-19, legal issues may develop. Additionally, a whistleblower lawsuit may exist if an employee alleges the company has violated public health requirements. However, if business travel can’t be delayed, there must be guidelines to reduce the risk of travel becoming a way to catch COVID.

Protect Employees Before Travel Begins

Businesses are advised to give their employees adequate personal protective equipment (PPE). Depending on how and where the employee is traveling, he or she is required by federal law to wear a mask in and on mass transit (e.g., airplanes, trains). It also may help to provide gloves, hand sanitizer and wipes.

Study Transit and Destination COVID-19 Policies

Whether it’s domestic or international travel, different cities, states and countries have different requirements for those who are vaccinated and those who are not. Depending on where the traveler has a layover, there could be testing, proof of vaccination or masking/social distancing requirements in place at various spots.

Agree to Travel-Related Activities

By highlighting the risks of visiting certain venues that may pose higher risks (e.g., restaurants, gyms), an employer also can mandate employees to wear masks, socially distance, wash hands frequently, etc., regardless of the locale’s requirements.

Plan Ahead for Post-Travel Office Work

Another important component of a travel policy is how the business and its employee(s) will return safely to work and interact with co-workers and clients. For the most extreme cases, there could be a 14-day work-from-home policy to reduce the risk. Businesses can mandate testing for employees as long as they cover testing costs and testing requirements are applied fairly companywide.

While the world is reopening to commerce, especially instances when business deals necessitate face-to-face meetings with people from different cities and continents, safety with COVID-19 is paramount.

Sources

https://www.ustravel.org/press/new-forecast-signals-long-road-recovery-business-travel

https://www.osha.gov/coronavirus/control-prevention/business-travelers

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/travel-during-covid19.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/international-travel-during-covid19.html

Increasing the Debt Limit, Extending Government Funding, and Protecting Vets, Veteran Moms and the Capitol Police

Increase of Public Debt Limit(S 1301) – This bill was enacted on Oct. 14 in order to increase the public debt limit. The debt was increased by $480 billion, the…

3 min read

Increasing the Debt Limit, Extending Government Funding, and Protecting Vets, Veteran Moms and the Capitol PoliceIncrease of Public Debt Limit(S 1301) – This bill was enacted on Oct. 14 in order to increase the public debt limit. The debt was increased by $480 billion, the amount projected by the Treasury Department to be needed through early December in order to avoid surpassing the public debt limit. Had this stopgap legislation not been passed, it would have created the potential for a severe economic crisis in which the government would have run out of money to pay back existing debts, government salaries and other pre-existing obligations. The bill was initially introduced by Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) on April 22; it passed in the House on Sept. 29 and in the Senate on Oct. 7. It was signed into law on Oct. 14.

Extending Government Funding and Delivering Emergency Assistance Act (HR 5305) – The bill was both introduced by Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and passed in the House on Sept. 21; then passed by the Senate on Sept. 30. It authorizes appropriations for federal agencies for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2022, including providing emergency assistance for activities related to natural disasters and evacuees from Afghanistan. The bill is also known as a continuing resolution (CR), which prevented a government shutdown that would otherwise have occurred if the 2022 appropriations bills had not been enacted by Oct. 1, when the new fiscal year began. The legislation was signed and enacted in the nick of time by the president on Sept. 30.

Protecting Moms Who Served Act of 2021 (S 716) – This bill was introduced by Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) on March 17. The purpose of the legislation is to codify maternity care coordination programs at the Department of Veterans Affairs. Specifically, the VA must work with local non-VA maternity care providers for training and support related to the unique needs of pregnant and postpartum veterans, particularly with regard to mental and behavioral health conditions. The bill passed in the Senate on Oct. 7 and is currently under consideration in the House.

A bill to direct the Secretary of Veterans Affairs to designate one week each year as Buddy Check Week for the purpose of outreach and education concerning peer wellness checks for veterans, and for other purposes. (S 544) – This bill directs the Department of Veterans Affairs to designate one week each year as Buddy Check Week for veterans to conduct peer wellness checks. It also mandates that the VA ensure the Veterans Crisis Line has a plan to handle potential increases in calls during that week. The bill was introduced by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) on March 2 and passed in the Senate on Oct 7. It is currently under consideration in the House.

Emergency Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2021 (HR 3237) – This legislation provides $1.9 billion in emergency supplemental appropriations for the legislative branch and federal agencies for preventive measures in response to what happened at the U.S. Capitol Complex on Jan. 6. Because this funding is designated as emergency spending, it is exempt from discretionary spending limits. The funding is allocated for expenses such as security-related upgrades, repairs to facilities damaged by the attack, reimbursements for the costs of responding to the attack, support for prosecutions, the establishment of a quick reaction force within the District of Columbia National Guard to assist the Capitol Police, and mandatory use of body-worn cameras by Capitol Police officers who interact with the public. The bill was introduced by Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) on May 14. It was passed in the House on May 20, in the Senate on July 29, and signed into law by the president on July 30.

Flood Insurance: Insuring Your Home

3 min read

Flood Insurance: Insuring Your HomeDid you know that homeowner’s insurance doesn’t cover flood damage? Because of this, homes located in a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) are required by lenders to purchase a separate flood insurance policy. However, there are millions of homes at risk that also experience periodic flooding but are not located in the most hazardous zones.

Regardless, any homeowner can purchase flood insurance and the good news is that, for some, rates will be reduced this year.

Starting on Oct. 1, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) launched a new program called Risk Rating 2.0. This program is designed to encourage communities throughout the country to deploy measures that help mitigate potential damage due to flooding. The lower the risk resulting from these efforts, the higher the rating. This means that many homeowners who live in highly rated areas may benefit from lower premiums going forward. However, be aware that there is only one source of insurance sponsored by the government, rates are standardized and payouts are capped at $250,000.

But not to worry, flood insurance also is available in the private market. Private insurers are able to customize premium quotes and the forces of competition help keep premiums reasonable, so it’s a good idea to comparison shop. Private flood insurance policies also offer additional coverage options that the NFIP does not, such as:

  • Up to $1 million or more in building coverage
  • Enhanced coverage for detached structures
  • Replacement cost for contents and secondary residences
  • Additional living expenses
  • Pool repair and fill
  • Business income coverage

If your home is not in a SFHA and you are wondering whether or not to purchase flood insurance, consider how much you can afford to pay out-of-pocket for flood damage. Use this statistic as a guide: 1 inch of floodwater can cause as much as $25,000 in damages to a home.

In other words, paying for flood insurance is kind of like paying a fee to protect your home equity and investment portfolio. Compare a flood policy to buying a warranty for a new appliance. The risk is that the cost of repairing or replacing that appliance would put a strain on your finances. If you apply that same logic to 1 inch of flood damage, you can see that a flood policy would offer a much higher return on the amount you invest in its premium. Since a single flood event could wipe out all of your assets, it stands to reason that insurance is critical for perils that pose high financial risks.

If you still need more data to help decide whether to buy a flood insurance policy, consider the impact that extreme weather events have had on your property in recent years. In many areas, flood damage isn’t caused by a hurricane, but rather by storm surges or heavy rainfall. Even if you haven’t experienced significant events, that could change due to the constantly evolving environment. Rising sea levels and new weather patterns are expected to produce higher intensity flooding from hurricanes and offshore storms.

One way to see the local flood patterns in your area is to visit Floodfactor.com. Navigate the Floodfactor map to pinpoint your home’s exact location, and compare patterns based on past, recent, and projected future weather events. 

How Businesses Can Help Employees Improve their Skills

4 min read

Employees Improve their SkillsBased upon a recent McKinsey Global Survey, nearly 9 in 10 (87 percent) of management and above level respondents affirmed they are currently, or within the upcoming five years, dealing with the skill gap among their employees. With the vast majority of businesses experiencing or forecasting a skills-gap, how can they close or reduce this challenge?

Due to the so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” as the World Economic Forum (WEF) explains, the best scenario it sees is 54 percent of workers requiring “reskilling and upskilling by 2022.” However, the WEF points out that 3 in 10 workers susceptible to occupation disruption due to advancements in applied science obtained additional training in 2018.

It’s important to clarify the differences between re-skilling and up-skilling. Re-skilling is where workers who are displaced by industries becoming obsolete, such as coal miners, are forced to retrain for a new career, such as coding, teaching, etc. Up-skilling, in contrast, involves building and staying current in one’s field – a programmer learning the newest programming language or a marketing manager learning the latest search engine optimization (SEO) techniques.

Carve Out Skill-Improvement Time Blocks

Even for companies that strive to provide their employees with flexible time for a work-life balance, it doesn’t always guarantee companies foster a culture of self-improvement and upskilling. When personal, professional and/or global crises occur, there’s not always time for employees to learn new computer programs or the latest programming language. However, by providing employees with a few hours a week dedicated to professional development, businesses give employees the opportunity to up-skill, leading to more satisfied employees, along with limited strain on the budget.

Arrange Worker-Guided Study Groups

When it comes to learning a new skill, according to Degreed via Harvad Business Review (HBR), workers will go to their peers 55 percent of the time, second only to reaching out to their supervisor for guidance, when looking to up-skill.

Few businesses are known to have developed a system for peer-to-peer learning in the workplace. According to McKinsey, “Learning & Development officers” reported businesses letting their employees put their skills into practice to develop additional skills, along with holding academic-type instruction and “experiential learning” for developing role competency. When it comes to structured peer-to-peer learning, fewer than 50 percent of businesses have anything established. Thirty-three percent of those surveyed responded that there’s no system established to facilitate skills development opportunities between co-workers.

From HBR’s “The Expertise Economy,” one reason that peer-to-peer learning is not the first choice for employee learning is due to a common belief that those who are proficient at a particular skill often exist outside the organization, such as a paid training consultant. This belief also is reinforced due to external educational experiences normally condensed into a single session, compared to smaller and more frequent in-house sessions.

HBR argues that peer-to-peer learning leverages the business’ internal expertise more effectively. If more experienced employees share their expertise with less seasoned co-workers to increase their skills, it can be very productive. In fact, HBR lays out a four-point plan for peer-to-peer learning to maximize employee up-skilling.

By using HBR’s “Learning Loop,” businesses can help employees learn new skills and knowledge through four steps:

  1. Employees obtain new information.
  2. After assimilating the new information, they practice implementing the new information.
  3. After it’s been applied, they obtain feedback on the application.
  4. The employee then reflects on what has been learned to further assimilate the new information.

While this program must be tailored to every organization, it shows that by taking a personal approach to up-skilling employees and building on their existing knowledge and skill sets, peer-to-peer learning can be one effective approach to helping employers and their employees close the skills gap.

Sources

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/skills-jobs-investing-in-people-inclusive-growth/

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Organization/Our%20Insights/Beyond%20hiring%20How%20companies%20are%20reskilling%20to%20address%20talent%20gaps/Beyond-hiring-How-companies-are-reskilling.ashx

https://hbr.org/2018/11/how-to-help-your-employees-learn-from-each-other

Why the IRS Should Love NFTs

3 min read

nonfungible NFTsSales and trading of nonfungible tokens (NFTs) are soaring recently. With the emergence of major marketplace platforms such as Opensea, NFTs are no longer an obscure segment of the blockchain technology world. Even old guard auction houses such as Sotheby’s are getting in on the action. In early September, the auction house facilitated the sale of a set of “Bored Apes” NFTs that sold for more than $24.4 million.

While the emerging space of NFTs is full of excitement, risk and opportunity, there’s the boring tax side of the equation. Unlike most other forms of assets or income, creating, trading and investing in NFTs can trigger a tax event.  

Creators

NFTs are classified as “self-created intangibles” like other works of art. The IRS allows the artist to deduct the expenses of creating the NFT immediately – even if the artwork is not sold. As a result, the creator typically has zero “basis” in their work. This means when they do sell their work, they’ll have no deductions, so a $100,000 sale means $100,000 of taxable income.

There is little formal guidance, but general principles indicate that NFTs are their creator’s inventory instead of a capital asset. This means that this income is treated as ordinary income and not capital gains – and it is subject to self-employment taxes as well.

Lastly, with certain NFTs, while the NFT itself is a unique blockchain token, the creator might retain copyright to whatever underlying artwork was used to make the NFT. Here, the creator may sell multiple NFTs based on the same original artwork as limited-edition, signed reprints. When the copyright is retained and copies are sold, the income is considered a royalty.

Traders and Investors

Trading NFTs is not as simple as trading stocks.

NFTs are purchased with cryptocurrency (most commonly Ethereum). Since the IRS treats cryptocurrency as property instead of currency, the purchase itself creates a taxable event. Swapping your Ethereum for an NFT means you’ll have to pay tax on any gain you have in your Ethereum position between its value at acquisition and the moment of using it to acquire the NFT.

Second, taxpayers will trigger a taxable event when they sell the NFT, thereby subject to capital gains taxes on the sale of the NFT at the 28 percent collectibles rate.

Conclusion

NFTs offer fantastic opportunities at tremendous risk. As a result, there will be winners and losers, but one thing is certain: the IRS should love NFTs for the taxes.

New Proposed Tax Laws

3 min read

New Proposed Tax Laws 2022The House recently released a nearly 900-page proposed bill that would make major changes to current tax laws. The bill is intended in large part to help pay for both the Biden Administration’s budget and infrastructure stimulus bill.

It’s important to keep in mind that the provisions and changes outlined below are by no means settled. Changes can (and likely will) still be made as the Senate ratifies the bill; however, the remainder of this article should give readers a good idea of the most significant provisions.

Income Tax Rates are Rising

The increase in the top income tax rate is probably the most talked about proposed change in the bill, bringing it up from 37 percent to 39.6 percent. The top marginal rate would apply to single filers with taxable income over $400,000, heads of household over $425,000 and married filing jointly taxpayers making over $450,000. The impact starts with income earned on Jan. 1, 2022, and after.

Capital Gains

The highest capital gains rate would increase from 20 percent to 25 percent and apply to qualified dividends. The increase is effective on gains made from sales that happen on or after Sept. 13, 2021, but any gains from sales incurred before or that result from binding contracts executed before this date fall under the old rate. For example, gains received post-Sept. 13, 2021, under an installment sale entered on Aug. 31, 2021, would be subject to the old 20 percent rate.

Expansion of the Net Investment Income Tax

The bill also would redefine net investment income (NIIT) to include any income earned in the ordinary course of business. Currently, the 3.8 percent NIIT surcharge applies only to passive income. The NIIT is applied to single taxpayers with more than $400,000 in taxable income and joint filers with over $500,000, and would start Jan. 1, 2022.

New 3 Percent Surcharge on High Income Individuals

Starting after Dec. 31, 2021, a new 3 percent tax will be placed on Adjusted Gross Incomes (AGI) over $5 million ($2.5 million if married filing separately).

Small Business Tax Increases

Under the bill, the current 21 percent flat corporate (C-Corporation) tax rate would change to a three-tiered system. The structure would tax net income at 18 percent up to $400,000; 21 percent from $401,000 to $5 million; and 26 percent on net income over $5 million.

Other Miscellaneous Changes

As you can imagine in an 881-page bill, there are only so many changes that can be covered in this article, but here is a smattering of miscellaneous provisions.

  • Crypto currencies would become subject to the constructive and wash sale rules (like most marketable securities such as stocks) starting Jan. 1, 2022. This means that if you are holding a position at a loss, you have until the end of 2021 to harvest the loss and immediately buy back in.
  • IRAs will no longer be allowed to invest in an entity where the IRA owner has a 10 percent or greater ownership interest (down from the current 50 percent threshold) or if the IRA owner is an officer of the entity.
  • $80 million is earmarked for the IRS to step up enforcement and audit more taxpayers.
  • Smokers will feel the pain as the bill also doubles the excise taxes on cigarettes, small cigars and roll-your-own tobacco.

Conclusion

Remember that this is only the House version of the bill, and nothing is final. Also remember that Democrats control the House, and the Senate is split 50/50 with the Democratic VP as the tiebreaker. As a result, while there will be changes, the major provisions outlined above will likely be in the final law in some form or another.

Mistakes to Avoid When Implementing Business Accounting Technology

4 min read

Business Accounting TechnologyChoosing to implement new technology for your accounting needs is a big step toward improving your business. Accounting technology helps streamline the accounting system, thereby offering various benefits. However, poor implementation can impact your business negatively. To make your implementation a success, there are several mistakes that you must avoid.

Importance of New Accounting Technology 

Before looking at the potential mistakes, it is important to understand why businesses implement new technologies. Technology advancement has played a great role in various life and business aspects. In businesses accounting, technology such as computerized systems help easily track and record financial transactions. 

Various types of technologies have impacted business accounting, such as cloud-based systems, mobile accounting, big data, artificial intelligence, data analytics, robotic process automation, etc.

Businesses that have successfully implemented some of these technologies have witnessed improved accuracy, faster processing, forecasting, analytics and better external reporting, among other benefits. 

As a result, more business owners wish to enjoy the same benefits as their counterparts. Unfortunately, rushing to implement a system will end up causing more harm to your business than what you are trying to change. Therefore, being prepared before the implementation will save you a lot of trouble. 

In a continuously changing technology landscape, businesses want to remain competitive and do not have much choice but to keep up with technology trends. 

Mistakes that Result in Poor Accounting Technology Implementation 

  • Failure to define your business’ specific requirements
    Rushing to implement a technology solution because a counterpart is benefiting from it is a bad idea. Remember each business is unique and, before implementing a new technology, you should first consider your kind of business. Identify functions to automate and research suitable systems that fit your needs. Failing to do this means you could end up settling for a generic solution that will not properly address your business needs.
  • Failing to plan the implementation process 
    Implementing new technology involves more than installations, configurations, setting up necessary devices and adding users to the new system. It requires – among other things – focus, resources, accountability and follow-up for its success. 
  • Failure to include users in the implementation process
    Users can determine how successful a new system will be. Involving users will help get the business process workflow right, and also plays a part in avoiding resistance to the new solution. If employees are opposed to the implementation, it will fail. 
  • Assuming it is a one-time cost 
    Failing to anticipate post-implementation costs may result in abandoning the new systems you implemented. Any new technology always comes with other hidden costs, such as maintenance fees, subscription fees, training, etc. Find out the involved costs to help you budget properly. 
  • Failure to properly train users 
    Many times, user training is overlooked to cut costs or with an assumption that they will learn on the go. Having the users properly trained will ensure only minimum support is necessary. All users should be well trained before the vendor or consultants finish with the implementation. Continuous training should be carried out to ensure that users leverage advanced features of a system that will help them be more productive.
  • Failure to consult
    Once you decide to implement new technology, most likely other businesses have done it, too. By consulting with other businesses, you will learn what has worked or not. You also may want to check vendor reviews, which can be readily found online. As more businesses choose to outsource accounting, it is best to consult on technologies to use for integration issues. This will help avoid the need to implement different solutions. 
  • Failure to consider security issues 
    In accounting, security is vital as you are dealing with personal and financial data. A data breach can result in financial loss or reputation damage. Consider your internal security, train your employees on security, and implement a security policy. Ensure that the vendors you choose to partner with prioritize security.

Take Away 

One vital point to remember when you want to implement an accounting technology is not to rush to keep up with trends without proper planning. A good implementation strategy will help you avoid the above-mentioned mistakes, ensuring your business enjoys productivity and workflow improvement. 

 

Does the Fed’s Beige Book Forecast Negative Market Headwinds?

3 min read

Fed's Beige Book Forecast Fall 2021According to the Sept. 8, 2021, release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, the U.S. economy is facing many headwinds.

The report found that restaurants and the travel sector saw a drop in activity. Home and auto sales were low because of fewer available houses on the market and a challenging supply of computer chips for auto makers. The same report found that although more people have found work, the level of newly created employment was mixed, despite a continuing need for more workers. Due to people quitting their jobs, people retiring, and those unable to find means of suitable childcare, the employment situation remains uncertain. With continued stressors on the economy, how will the stock market fare through the rest of 2021 and into 2022?

The Beige Book, officially known as the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, comes out eight times throughout the year. Information collection begins six weeks before, and the report is released two weeks prior to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, providing an overview of the economic health of each of the 12 districts of the Federal Reserve Bank.

The Sept. 8, 2021, Beige Book Report found challenges in different sectors; however, some challenges, such as the semi-conductor shortage, were faced nationally. Based on past analysis, current sentiment reported by businesses and consumers will be confirmed or dispelled by forthcoming data.

As Northwestern University’s Medill School notes, the Beige Book is devoid of formulas, statistical analysis or industry jargon. Rather, it contains observational and comparative data derived from speaking with and sampling business owners and business analysts. In contrast to statistical data, it illuminates what business executives and consumers are worrying about.

It’s often referred to as a key gauge and is especially important because when the economy takes a downturn, the data deterioration often renders business statistics obsolete. It’s also relevant because the FOMC uses it to determine monetary policy chiefly via modifying the federal funds interest rate target. Similarly, when it comes to economic figures, it’s important to keep in mind the timeliness of such statistics because they are announced after they’ve been recorded.

During the coronavirus pandemic, especially when little was known in the beginning, the Beige Book offered Fed officials the ability to speak with industry insiders in the thick of it, especially when data was scant or unknown. Others observe that the Beige Book predicted the 2008/2009 housing crisis starting in October 2006 when mortgage delinquencies began appearing.

By viewing events in real-time, it offers anecdotal evidence compared to questionable forecasts. For example, the July 18, 2018, Beige Book Report found that well before the data confirmed manufacturers’ worries over the trade war with China and Trump’s tariffs, 10 districts reported “moderate economic growth.”

According to a 2003 study performed by Occidental College and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the more confidence-inspiring news a Beige Book Report contains, the greater the correlation with higher interest rates, especially when it comes to long-term rates. It also expresses a bullish correlation with increases in stock prices when the economy is growing, but a deceleration during an economic slowdown. When banks set their lending rates, they directly or indirectly use long-term rates as reference. Policy makers also use this as an indicator for inflation expectations in the financial markets.

While no one has a crystal ball to predict how the economy and stock markets will perform going forward, the Beige Book is an important tool the Fed and those in the government factor in when attempting to steer economic growth.

Enhancing Agency Budget Transparency, Opportunities to Study Science and Environmental Protections

Congressional Budget Justification Transparency Act of 2021 (S 272)

3 min read

Congressional Budget Justification Transparency Act of 2021 (S 272)Congressional Budget Justification Transparency Act of 2021 (S 272) – This bill mandates that federal agencies must make budget justification materials publicly available online. The Office of Management and Budget will be required to publish details regarding the agencies that submit budget justification materials to Congress and dates the materials are posted online, along with links to the materials. The bill was introduced by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) on Feb. 8, passed in the Senate and the House on Aug. 23 and is awaiting enactment by the president.

National Science Foundation for the Future Act (HR 2225) – Introduced by Rep. Eddie Johnson (D-TX) on March 26, the bill authorizes appropriations for the National Science Foundation for fiscal years 2022 through 2026. It is designed to assess opportunities and award grants for Pre-K through 12 science, technology, engineering and mathematics programs, including computer science and STEM education research. The legislation passed in the House on June 28 and is in the Senate for consideration.

Driftnet Modernization and Bycatch Reduction Act (S 273) – This bill was introduced by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) on Feb. 8. The purpose of the legislation is to prohibit the use of large-scale gillnets with a mesh size of 14 inches or greater. Gillnets are used for driftnet fishing, in which nets with panels of webbing are placed in the water and allowed to drift with the currents and winds to passively catch fish by entangling them in the webbing. Presently, gillnets are limited in size to less than 2.5 kilometers in length. However, the bill will not go into effect within the U.S. exclusive economic zone for five years in order for the Department of Commerce to facilitate the phase out of large-scale driftnet fishing and promote the adoption of alternative practices to minimize the incidental catch of living marine resources. Furthermore, the bill authorizes the Commerce Dept. to award grants to program participants. The bill passed in the Senate on Sept. 14 and is currently under consideration in the House.

PFAS Action Act of 2021 (HR 2467) – This legislation would require the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to limit the use of and designate perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl (PFAS) as hazardous substances. These are manmade materials used in a variety of products, such as nonstick cookware and weatherproof clothing, that may have adverse human health effects. The legislation would classify PFAS under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980, which in turn would require appropriate remediation of those substances released into the environment. This bill was introduced by Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) on April 13. It is currently in the Senate after passing in the House on July 21.

Divided Families Reunification Act(HR 826) – This bill directs the State Department to make regular reports to Congress on its work with South Korea to reunite Korean Americans with family in North Korea. The legislation was introduced by Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY) on Feb. 4 and passed in the House on July 19. It is currently under consideration in the Senate.